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The probability of conspiracy theories.

journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147905
bigthink.com/natalie-shoemaker/whats-the-probability-that-the-moon-landing-was-all-a-hoax-one-man-has-done-the-math

"Grimes has published this mathematical model in PLOS ONE, applying it to some of the most controversial conspiracy theories."

"When the amount of people involved in a conspiracy increases, the rate at which the conspiracy will be revealed increases (whether by some sort of whistleblower or by an accidental slip of the tongue). “For a conspiracy of even only a few thousand actors, intrinsic failure would arise within decades,” he writes. “For hundreds of thousands, such failure would be assured within less than half a decade."

"The grim reality is that there appears to be a cohort so ideologically invested in a belief that for whom no reasoning will shift, their convictions impervious to the intrusions of reality. In these cases, it is highly unlikely that a simple mathematical demonstration of the untenability of their belief will change their viewpoint. However, for the less invested, such an intervention might indeed prove useful."